Can South Sudan avoid civil war?

Join us for a debate on South Sudan's crisis and its underlying causes on Wednesday, January 22 at 12pm GMT/ 3pm South Sudan time. Hashtag: #SSudanconflict

3rd & 7 37yd

The impact of any conflict upon communities, nations and economies is considerable. Yet again, the people of South Sudan have had to flee fighting, leaving their homes, belongings & livelihoods. The fighting has taken at toll on people, loved ones including children have been killed and injured, entire villages, schools and businesses destroyed. Some children have been recruited as child soldiers, young women and girls have been attacked & abused. The trauma of witnessing this is long-lasting and trust between groups in the country diminished. Some estimate the conflict has set back a generation – and it is true the impact upon a country with already very low education, will be huge. Furthermore, the international community’s and business world’s faith will have been diminished.

by PlanResa 1/22/2014 12:33:36 PM

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Just to say again: serious efforts by the international community to put in place a commission of inquiry could have preventative effect.

by Skye Wheeler, Human Rights... 1/22/2014 12:34:27 PM

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Hi Jenny. One indication that this will last for a long-time is that while Kiir is both militarily ascendent at the moment, and largely backed by the international community (and Uganda), to the extent that a Machar-led government seems like an impossibility, he is also extremely unpopular, and has lost legitimacy with vast swathes of the population, indicating that we could see a grim repetition of the second civil war, with the government holding the urban centres, this time with Sudanese and Ugandan support, while the rebels dominate the bush.

by joshua_craze 1/22/2014 12:37:20 PM

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I am not an expert in peace negotiations but one important point: the negotiators must find a way to allow Riek to come to Government with some dignity. Otherwise the national polarization that has occurred will continue even after an agreement is signed. Remember also that signing and agreement and implementing (as we have seen in the past in this region) are two different things.

by Ndungu, Plan International 1/22/2014 12:38:06 PM

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2) If it's headed toward a prolonged civil war, I would think that aid groups' long term development plans would be disrupted and would have to shift to emergency work. Is this correct? If so, any back-up plans? What will happen to donors funds specifically meant for long-term development work?

by Jenny from Devex 1/22/2014 12:38:18 PM

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The violence has created a cycle of revenge and fear which will be extremely damaging for the future cohesion of the country in any case. The longer the violence continues, the more difficult it will be to stop the country from sliding in a protracted all-out war.

by Sara Pantuliano 1/22/2014 12:38:20 PM

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3) The paper "Aiding the peace" talks about how donors sort of failed to grasp the idea that providing services, more aid to South Sudan is not the answer to lasting peace there. If this is the case, then what is the answer to lasting peace in South Sudan?

by Jenny from Devex 1/22/2014 12:38:41 PM

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Aimee from Oxfam makes an excellent point -- even if the conflict were to end tomorrow (and we fervently hope that it does) the damage is so immense that it will require a sustained committment to help people recover. For WFP, that will mean working to help people rebuild their lives and livelihoods.

by Challiss McDonough 1/22/2014 12:39:02 PM

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What role does oil play in this conflict?

by Alex Whiting @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 12:41:18 PM

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4) Lastly, once peace is restore, what should donors approach be?

by Jenny from Devex 1/22/2014 12:42:05 PM

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It seems one of the key challenges is access to reliable, verified information. I imagine this is having a significant impact on humanitarian response and will further inform international organizations/donors as they look to reconfigure their programming to account for the new context. Do the panelists have thoughts about how organizations will generate this information and/or the challenges of doing so and risks to not?

by Melyn McKay Integrity... 1/22/2014 12:42:17 PM

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This is already a very dire humanitarian situation. Some 10,000 people have been killed and around 500,000 displaced – many of them women and children. The figures of displaced might be much bigger. With such a new country – which has a very recent history of a long-running, bitter war, it would be all too easy for conflict to be seen as the solution – which it obviously is not. It would be a catastrophic and rapid collapse for a nation with great potential.

by PlanResa 1/22/2014 12:42:31 PM

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Sarah, the present situation is not terminal. If Riek and Kiir find an accommodation to work with each, other the people will follow and quite soon. Neigbouring Kenya is a good example that even ethnic divisions can be bridged and quite quickly if the leaders want to. The next step then will be re-engaing the nation in the positive project of rebuilding and development.

by Ndungu, Plan International 1/22/2014 12:42:37 PM

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Alex -- Oil isn't directly a stake in the political struggles underlying the conflict, but control of the oil fields, as during the second civil war, is a potentially crucial resource, and oil flows determines the way a bunch of international actors (from China to Sudan) align themselves. The economic and humanitarian costs of the lost oil revenue are of course immense.

by joshua_craze 1/22/2014 12:42:57 PM

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Jenny, on your 2nd question, the key is to avoid the ‘pendulum swing’ in the aid response. Some governments are already threatening to reduce/cut long term aid programmes, which remain essential in large parts of the country. The response needs to be tailored to the different realties on the ground, and will need to combine both humanitarian and development interventions.

by Sara Pantuliano 1/22/2014 12:44:13 PM

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Ndungu, agreed. Despite the levels of violence, it is instructive (and hopeful) to see how quickly people can live in peace again. The second-civil-war SPLA split, and the subsequent reconciliation in South Sudan, is instructive. It may have been superficial, on many levels, but, pragmatically, it worked. At least for a while. The most powerful way to mend the damage is for people to be able to get on with their lives.

by joshua_craze 1/22/2014 12:45:04 PM

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I wonder about the idea of "rebuilding" livelihoods - what/when was the stable norm to which people can supposedly return, and how would they get there now even if desirable? Support for livelihoods will be critical, as it was already. But what does that mean in a context in which LHs were already very insecure, particularly in areas like Jonglei?

by Rachel Gordon, Feinstein... 1/22/2014 12:45:48 PM

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My last point: if peace is to start and take hold we (the international community) must avoid all acts that seem to apportion blame. I know this flies in the face of all norms of justice and human right, but it may be the price that all must pay if this sad chapter is to be closed. The issue of justice and reparations should be left to a future where such efforts are not likely to recreate conflict

by Ndungu, Plan International 1/22/2014 12:45:54 PM

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Jenny, after peace is restored, we need donors to focus on revitalizing the national dialogue that existed before independence. There are deep-seeded issues that must be addressed at the community level and between communities. The South Sudanese must lead this process, but donors can support it.

by OXFAM Sam Rosmarin 1/22/2014 12:45:58 PM

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@Jenny on your second question, I would argue that there was already in a humanitarian crisis in much of South Sudan before this conflict began. There should be space for both development aid AND humanitarian aid like MSF's in the country. Before the crisis both were needed - and now during and after this conflict ends, development aid to rebuild the country and humanitarian aid to keep people alive during the building process will both be desperately needed

by Heather Pagano - MSF 1/22/2014 12:48:15 PM

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Following on Sam's point, critical issues identified back in 2005 are still unaddressed, such as youth alienation and specific tensions around water and land which that were exacerbated by the poor process of reintegration of demobilised soldiers and the enormous return of populations from Khartoum and abroad since 2005. These issues have ended up being a fertile ground for today’s political rivalry to spiral into a widespread conflict and will need to be at the centre of any future aid response.

by Sara Pantuliano 1/22/2014 12:48:37 PM

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Heather, 100% agreed. The problem is that the conventional aid architecture has proven once again to be ill equipped to cater for a situation that spanned humanitarian and development needs. As in many ‘post-conflict’ countries, from the beginning South Sudan still needed support for direct service delivery, alongside support for the building of government capacity, but the latter was prioritised in the name of state building de facto leaving a number of communities poorly served if at all.

by Sara Pantuliano 1/22/2014 12:51:04 PM

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I agree with Sam. One way the international community could help assure long term stability is in building credible national institutions that will enable South Sudanese to disagree without resulting to the force of arms. But the country is likely to remain on a humanitarian crisis footing for many years so I don't know if this will be donor priority

by Ndungu, Plan International 1/22/2014 12:51:54 PM

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Sara - are the govt threats to curb/cut aid having an impact on the mediation process?

by Alex Whiting @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 12:55:09 PM

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Following on Ndungu's point, the international donor community needs to think about how to balance humanitarian/aid support with the reality that the Government is the duty bearer to provide services. Such service delivery can be a uniting force that builds peace.

by OXFAM Sam Rosmarin 1/22/2014 12:56:10 PM

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Sara and others, do you think there's space for donors to use aid as leverage, while avoiding the pendulum swing? I'm thinking specifically of justice and reconciliation processes, but perhaps also for other longer-term stabilization mechanisms that the political players seem unlikely to pursue without some compelling reason.

by Rachel Gordon, Feinstein... 1/22/2014 12:56:23 PM

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The international community has a great stake in South Sudan as the world’s fledgling country. Governments, businesses and the aid community have invested a huge amount in both its people and infrastructure. It is essential that dialogue towards a peaceful resolution is kept open at all costs, as the alternative will be disastrous for all.

by PlanResa 1/22/2014 12:57:47 PM

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Alex, the idea is that the threat of cutting aid would offer some leverage, same as the sanctions that are being talked about, but I am personally sceptical that either will have any leverage, and in the case of aid cuts it will only end up further affecting communities in great need.

by Sara Pantuliano 1/22/2014 12:59:27 PM

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Rachel, I would strongly oppose the idea of using aid withholding as threat. With so many people in dire straits, and likely to remain so, this would be equivalent to dancing on the graves of the dying.

by Ndungu, Plan International 1/22/2014 1:00:09 PM

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@Rachel Gordon - I'm always nervous to see aid used as any kind of political leverage. Humanitarian aid should never be subject to political processes. We argue body and soul against this kind of narrative, as it politicises aid & makes doing our job much more dangerous

by Heather Pagano - MSF 1/22/2014 1:00:58 PM

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Rachel, the short answer is no!

by Sara Pantuliano 1/22/2014 1:01:00 PM

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Great to see many people pointing out the role unaddressed issues have played in creating this conflict, precisely why truth telling matters so much at this point. It may be too difficult politically and emotionally for SS's police, prosecutors etc. to investigate and prosecute crimes including war crimes but getting impartial international experts in to investigate what happened might -- if done well -- to provide respite as truth telling often does. And SS victims deserve justice as much as anyone else.

by Skye Wheeler, Human Rights... 1/22/2014 1:01:40 PM

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UN and others should consider targeted sanctions like asset freezes on individuals who have been credibly accused of committing violations.

by Skye Wheeler, Human Rights... 1/22/2014 1:02:30 PM

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My suggestion is to exert pressure on the lead combatant to cease hostilities, it has been shown to work elsewhere. Then the carrot of continued long term support to rebuild the country - a lot of support will be needed

by Ndungu, Plan International 1/22/2014 1:02:57 PM

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I have heard there have been protests in Juba against the international community due to (mis)perceptions about their neutrality. Can anyone in SS give some insight into this, what the risks are for humanitarian aid agencies and whether the humanitarian space is likely to shrink as a result?

by James East 1/22/2014 1:03:10 PM

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Hi David, I’d be interested to know the direction discussions at the South Sudan Civil Society Forum are taking, and the role you see civil society leaders as playing in bringing an end to the conflict?

by Oxfam Aimee Brown 1/22/2014 1:03:19 PM

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The problem of targeted sanctions is that they could recall the case of the Darfur sanctions, where the UN did not have the power to ensure that the sanctions were properly implemented, they could not make the sanctions regime coherent, and they broke their own rules, and ferried people about, despite being under their own sanctions! Sanctioning the leading players in this conflict will only make a sustainable political settlement more unlikely.

by joshua_craze 1/22/2014 1:03:44 PM

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Jérôme Tubiana has a good short piece explaining some of the issues faced by the Darfur sanctions, and which are likely to be even more problematic in the case of South Sudan, in which the leaders that need freedom of movement to negotiate, are precisely the people who should be sanctioned. www.opendemocracy.net

by joshua_craze 1/22/2014 1:05:00 PM

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Question for David Deng: how can the international community best support civil society?

by OXFAM Sam Rosmarin 1/22/2014 1:08:58 PM

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We wish a peaceful resolution to the conflict and a situation where citizens feel secure and free.

by PlanResa 1/22/2014 1:09:02 PM

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Skye, I hear you. But I think you are jumping the gun here (sorry for the unfortunate phrase). Cessation in hostilities first, some stabilization and return to normalcy next and then the question of justice can be addressed. Even then it will end up being an unsatisfactory effort - in an atmosphere of polarization and a highly militarized society with a weak government, forgiving and forgetting may end up being the only solution.

by Ndungu, Plan International 1/22/2014 1:09:11 PM

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Many thanks for all your contributions - it's been a very interesting discussion.

by Alex Whiting @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 1:11:46 PM

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Many thanks - we will continue this debate on our website and in our reporting

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 1:12:13 PM

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Thanks Katy and Alex.

by joshua_craze 1/22/2014 1:12:41 PM

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Thanks to all our panelists

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 1:12:44 PM

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On justice, I don't think you can separate the long and short term. The UN mission must be able to bear witness and collect information on violations of human rights and international humanitarian law. Ivan Simonovic warned of violations during his visit.

by OXFAM Sam Rosmarin 1/22/2014 1:12:49 PM

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And all our contributors

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 1:13:01 PM

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I believe South Sudan can avoid a civil war, in fact I bet they will. What comes next is the question. One way or the other we must help the country to stabilise and then develop. In short the people must see there is greater benefit to peace than war. This means the issue of youth alienation and deprivation must be addressed as a priority.

by Ndungu, Plan International 1/22/2014 1:13:04 PM

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Thanks Alex and Katy for organising, and to everyone for such an engaging exchange.

by Sara Pantuliano 1/22/2014 1:13:04 PM

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We will be writing up a summary of the discussion to post on our website.

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 1:13:22 PM

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Thanks for moderating this, Katy, and thanks to the Thomson Reuters Foundation for hosting it. It's been a very interesting discussion that 's covered a lot of important aspects of this crisis.

by Challiss McDonough 1/22/2014 1:13:23 PM

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Thank you for having us Katy & Alex! Very interesting discussion so thanks also to the other panellists.

by Heather Pagano - MSF 1/22/2014 1:13:31 PM

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I should have clarified that I didn't mean humanitarian/emergency aid, but was thinking more of long-term institutional support and other aid. Ideally it's not politicised of course, but realistically (in my admittedly limited experience) it seems that nearly everything is at least viewed as political in South Sudan. How can donors deal more effectively with that reality (if it is that)?

by Rachel Gordon, Feinstein... 1/22/2014 1:14:02 PM

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Thank you all for a great discussion. Peace, out.

by Ndungu, Plan International 1/22/2014 1:14:04 PM

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Thanks for the very informative debate.

by PlanResa 1/22/2014 1:14:05 PM

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