Can South Sudan avoid civil war?

Join us for a debate on South Sudan's crisis and its underlying causes on Wednesday, January 22 at 12pm GMT/ 3pm South Sudan time. Hashtag: #SSudanconflict

Hello everyone and welcome to our debate on the future of South Sudan.
Today we’re discussing whether South Sudan can avoid a prolonged civil war, following the outbreak of conflict on Dec. 15.
We’d welcome your comments as we go along. Do you think South Sudan can avoid prolonged civil war?
Please also send in questions for our accomplished panel.
And updates from South Sudan would also be great in giving us of a picture of what is happening on the ground.

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation edited by Alex Whiting @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 11:44:00 AM

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3rd & 7 37yd

Hello all,

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/21/2014 11:30:19 AM

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The crisis which broke out in South Sudan is the worst since independence with some 500,000 people displaced and thousands killed. Humanitarian agencies are struggling to reach many people in need because of the ongoing conflict.

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/21/2014 11:31:01 AM

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Some of the questions we plan to address tomorrow Weds 22 Jan are:

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/21/2014 11:31:19 AM

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Why is it proving so difficult for the warring parties to agree to a ceasefire? Is the world’s youngest state headed for civil war? What are the root causes of the violence? Once peace is restored, what impact will the events of the past month have on South Sudan going forwards? What leverage does the international community have?

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/21/2014 11:31:27 AM

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Please join us with your comments and questions.

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/21/2014 11:32:06 AM

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Can #SouthSudan avoid civil war? Join expert debate with @TR_Foundation Weds 12 GMT bit.ly/KqZuaY #ssudanconflict

by TheHumanImpact via twitter 1/21/2014 11:59:55 AM
Can #SouthSudan avoid civil war? Join discussion wi/ experts from @MSF @WFP @OpenSociety Weds 12 GMT bit.ly/KqZuaY #ssudanconflict

by TR_Foundation via twitter 1/21/2014 12:04:17 PM
Can #SouthSudan avoid prolonged civil war? Join expert debate with @TR_Foundation Weds 12 GMT bit.ly/KqZuaY #ssudanconflict

by Alex Whiting via twitter 1/21/2014 1:19:09 PM
Can South Sudan avoid civil war? @TR_Foundation hosts expert panel inc @SaraPantuliano - Wed 12 GMT bit.ly/KqZuaY #ssudanconflict

by hpg_odi via twitter 1/21/2014 3:14:35 PM
Tomorrow: Can #SouthSudan avoid civil war? @AlertNet online debate, noon GMT/3 pm Juba/Nairobi time trust.org/spotlight/can-… #SSudanconflict

by challiss via twitter 1/21/2014 3:17:02 PM
#ssudanconflict Can South Sudan avoid civil war? join MSF RIO @H_Pagano et al debate today 3pm via@TR_Foundation - bit.ly/KqZuaY

by wairimugitau8 via twitter 1/22/2014 6:41:58 AM
Can #SouthSudan avoid civil #war ? Join @TR_Foundation #onlinedebate today, Jan 22, @ 12:00 GMT bit.ly/1aJYcOP #SSudanconflict

by reliefweb via twitter 1/22/2014 7:01:08 AM
Can #SouthSudan avoid prolonged civil war? Join expert debate today 12:00 GMT bit.ly/KqZuaY #ssudanconflict http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BekeJMICIAA_R0M.png

by TR_Foundation via twitter 1/22/2014 8:16:29 AM
Can South Sudan avoid civil war? Too late for that...

by David Deng 1/22/2014 9:38:50 AM

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One of my favourite pieces on South Sudan over the last couple of weeks, as we consider what went wrong diplomatically –

U.S. was slow to lose patience as South Sudan unraveled

WASHINGTON/UNITED NATIONS, Jan 14 (Reuters) - It was a bad start for the U.S. president and the leader of the world's newest country.
At their first meeting, less than three months after South Sudan's independence, Barack Obama challenged President Salva Kiir with what he said was U.S. evidence that Kiir's government was arming rebels fighting the Sudanese government in Khartoum.
Kiir told Obama his information was wrong, a denial that U.S. officials regarded as dishonest and the short session ended in "disaster"…

U.S. was slow to lose patience as South Sudan unraveled
USA-SOUTHSUDAN/=2:U.S. was slow to lose patience as South Sudan unraveled

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 11:05:16 AM

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Can #SouthSudan avoid prolonged civil war? Join expert debate today 12:00 GMT bit.ly/KqZuaY #ssudanconflict http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BekeJHtCEAAGOy7.png

by Astrid Zweynert via twitter 1/22/2014 11:05:20 AM
Looking forward to the debate #ssudanconflict g.scrbliv.me/GFdgGXN via @ScribbleLive

by Plan Resa via twitter 1/22/2014 11:06:29 AM
Joshua Craze gives some detail of the characters involved in fighting in Unity State –

“Just as during the second civil war, the possibility remains of government control of the urban centers, and a dissolute and fractured rebellion taking control of the rural areas, a situation that, without a political resolution of the conflict, could be interminable.”

www.smallarmssurveysudan.org

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 11:19:54 AM

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Some publications by our panelists over the last few weeks –

Sara Pantuliano looks at how donors failed South Sudan during the interim period (2005 – 2011) and beyond

Donor-Driven Technical Fixes Failed South Sudan: It’s Time to Get Political

While commentators argue about who or what is most at fault for South Sudan's return to conflict, one thing is clear: the international community is not free from blame.

Donor-Driven Technical Fixes Failed South Sudan: It’s Time to Get Political | Think Africa Press

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 11:22:23 AM

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David Deng talks about the need for justice and reconciliation

“Sidelining justice in peace negotiations may help to expedite political settlements in the short-term, but it fails to adequately address the question of impunity that lies at the heart of internal conflicts in South Sudan. Attempts to bury the past also give rise to contested and obscured histories, sowing the seeds for continued abuses “

South Sudan talks must make provision for Justice and Reconciliation – By David Deng and Elizabeth DengAfrican Arguments | African Arguments

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 11:22:47 AM

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30 mins to our #ssudanconflict debate at bit.ly/KqZuaY - can #SouthSudan avoid prolonged civil war? Pls send questions/comments

by Katy Migiro via twitter 1/22/2014 11:30:06 AM
Here I am

by Don Bosco Malish 1/22/2014 11:32:29 AM

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Hooray - great to see you made it Don Bosco Malish. Your contribution will be most welcome.

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 11:32:56 AM

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Hello! Looking forward to participating in this debate. Happy to answer questions you may have about MSF's work on the ground in South Sudan. Hopefully the Juban internet cooperates with me for the entire hour...

by Heather Pagano - MSF 1/22/2014 11:33:03 AM

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Hi Heather, yes, fingers crossed for us all with our various internets

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 11:33:38 AM

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Some 4 million South Sudanese were food-insecure even before this crisis.

by Challiss McDonough 1/22/2014 11:33:40 AM

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Welcome Challiss

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 11:33:53 AM

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Morning all

by joshua_craze 1/22/2014 11:36:09 AM

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Plan is extremely concerned over continuing violence and any further deterioration in security in the world’s youngest country. #southsudanconflict

by Abraham Sebastian 1/22/2014 11:38:39 AM

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Hi Katy! I"m looking forward to this discussion, and happy to answer questions about WFP's work and the impact of this crisis on food security.

by Challiss McDonough 1/22/2014 11:38:42 AM

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Hi Joshua, so glad you could join us. What time of the morning exactly is it where you are?

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 11:39:46 AM

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Looking forward to the discussion today!

by Laurie Goering 1/22/2014 11:40:13 AM

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It's coffee-time, or 3.40am, as it is otherwise written.

by joshua_craze 1/22/2014 11:43:29 AM

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Joshua - ow! MANY thanks for joining

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 11:45:29 AM

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Looking forward to the debate in 15 minutes!

by Sara Pantuliano 1/22/2014 11:45:31 AM

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Hi Sara, great to have you on board as well.

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 11:46:08 AM

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Live online debate on whether South Sudan can avoid civil war starting in 15 minutes here: trust.org/spotlight/can-… #ssudanconflict

by Alertnetclimate via twitter 1/22/2014 11:46:13 AM
15 mins to our #ssudanconflict debate at bit.ly/KqZuaY - can #SouthSudan avoid prolonged civil war? Pls send questions/comments

by Katy Migiro via twitter 1/22/2014 11:47:12 AM
Can #SouthSudan avoid prolonged civil war? Join expert debate with @TR_Foundation TODAY, 12 GMT bit.ly/KqZuaY #ssudanconflict

by TR_Foundation via twitter 1/22/2014 11:49:04 AM
South Sudan is one of the ‘fragile states’ – an oil-rich but chronically undeveloped country with extreme poverty and many challenges having recently emerged from decades of civil war with Sudan. #SSudanconflict

by Abraham Sebastian 1/22/2014 11:51:18 AM

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Many thanks to our panellists for joining. Looking forward very much to hearing your views on the South Sudan conflict, its root causes, and why it's proving so difficult for the warring parties to agree to a ceasefire #SSudanconflict

by Alex Whiting @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 11:52:50 AM

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Two woman displaced by the fighting in Bor county sit by a mosquito net during the early morning in Minkaman, in Awerial county, Lakes state, in South Sudan, January 15, 2014. REUTERS/Andreea Campeanu

by Magda Mis @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 11:54:47 AM

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The conflict has led to more than 600,000 people being internally displaced – many of them women and children. #ssudanconfilct

by Abraham Sebastian 1/22/2014 11:58:41 AM

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South Sudan Peace Deal Unsigned as Rebels Seek Detainee Release
Businessweek.comAn accord to halt fighting in South
Sudan hasn’t been signed because rebels are demanding the
release of leading opponents detained by the government before
they agree to a truce.

by Katy Migiro @TR_Foundation 1/22/2014 11:59:17 AM

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